Neuraminidase Inhibitors Drug Market Trends

Growth Drivers

• Mapping patient pool and disease prevalence: In Germany, 8000 to 11,000 people die every year due to flu, according to the HZI report in 2025. At the same time, the CDC documented that influenza-related hospitalizations in the U.S. is rising every year. These statistics reaffirm a continuously sizable patient pool requiring antiviral treatment throughout North America and Europe. The elderly population and co-morbidities of a chronic nature with diabetes, asthma, and COPD, increase demand for efficacious antivirals such as oseltamivir and zanamivir in inpatient and outpatient facilities as well.
• Manufacturers' strategies and innovations: Roche, a Tamiflu manufacturer, signed a new licensing agreement in 2024 to produce low-cost generic oseltamivir for public health programs, driving overall volume up globally. On the other hand, Shionogi pushed a new peramivir product with better IV stability and introduced pilot programs in Japan and South Korea. These advancements move towards broader availability and greater clinical use. Further, they strengthen alliances with ministries of health and expand access to antivirals in underserved areas, in line with pandemic preparedness.
• Out-of-pocket spending by individuals: According to the NLM study in August 2024, the drug cost of oseltamivir is USD 50.40, which is primarily used as a neuraminidase inhibitor. The consistency in reimbursements and formulary inclusion across multiple years makes these antivirals a reliable part of public healthcare strategies. This impacts robust government backing and affordable access for patients. Sustained funding by the federal government demands the stability and revenue streams to the market for key players dominating in the regulated reimbursement landscape.

Newly emerged Neuraminidase Inhibitors Resistant Mutations from 2019 to 2024

Source: NLM November 2024

Challenges

• Supply chain and shelf-life constraints: Long shelf-life antivirals are required by government stockpiling. The CDC’s Strategic National Stockpile report has stated that millions of oseltamivir doses expired and were wasted during the years 2021 to 2023, surging manufacturers to reform and extend the stability. For instance, the HHS required a heat-stable formulation from Tamiflu’s company in 2023, resulting in a delayed contract for six to seven months. Hence, manufacturers were facing various challenges to meet the stability standard risks and losing the long-term contract during pandemic preparedness.
• Fragmented tender systems: Each region has different tendering structures and inconsistent bidding cycles for procurement procedures. This results in uncertainty in supply chains. In most low- and middle-income countries, procurement approvals and price evaluations tend to cause delayed deliveries and issues in inventory management. Such variability reduces manufacturers’ visibility on order volumes and delivery timelines, complicating production planning.  By contrast, harmonized and centralized procurement systems, like those introduced in segments of Europe, facilitate less complicated supplier coordination and more predictable market access.