Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market size is estimated to cross USD 15,000 Million by the end of 2035, growing at a CAGR of 42% during the forecast period, i.e., 2023-2035. In the year 2022, the industry size of sustainable aviation fuel was USD 435 Million. The growth of the market can be attributed to the increased traffic in airlines. With increasing air passenger traffic, the need for reducing carbon emission has become crucial which in turn has increased the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). In 1960, there were 100 million air passengers and by 2019, the overall yearly global passenger count had reached 4.56 billion. Moreover, according to the International Air Transport Association statistics of the Asia-Pacific airlines increased full-year foreign traffic by around 363.3% in 2022 compared to 2021, keeping the highest year-over-year growth among the regions. The capacity increased by 129.9%
In addition to these, factors that are believed to fuel the market growth of sustainable aviation fuel include the rising pollution caused by the aviation industry. Despite substantial improvements in aircraft and flight operations efficiency over the last 60 years. However, passenger air travel was responsible for the largest and fastest growth in individual emissions. According to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), commercial aviation produced 707 million tons of CO2 globally in 2013. Moreover, in 2019, that value has risen by nearly 30% in six years to 920 million tons. In addition to this, in a round-trip flight from London to San Francisco around 6 tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) per passenger is generated, which is more than twice the emissions produced by a family car in a year and roughly half of the average carbon footprint of a British citizen. Even a return flight from London to Berlin generates about 0.6 tonnes CO2e, which is three times the amount of CO2e saved by recycling for a year.
Growth Drivers
Challenges
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Base Year |
2022 |
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Forecast Year |
2023-2035 |
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CAGR |
~42% |
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Base Year Market Size (2022) |
~ USD 435 Million |
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Forecast Year Market Size (2035) |
~ USD 15,000 Million |
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Regional Scope |
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Fuel Type (BioFuel, Power to Liquid Fuel, Hydrogen Fuel, Gas to Liquid Fuel)
The global sustainable aviation fuel market is segmented and analyzed for demand and supply by fuel type into biofuel, power to liquid fuel, hydrogen fuel, and gas to liquid fuel. Out of the four types of fuels used in aviation, the biofuel segment is estimated to gain the largest market share of about ~40% in the year 2035. The growth of the segment can be attributed to the increasing popularity of aviation biofuels. According to the International Energy Agency, the first flight utilizing mixed biofuel occurred in 2008. After that, biofuels have been used on over 150,000 flights all across the world. In 2018, around 15 million liters of aviation biofuel were produced. Moreover, initiatives taken by airports to supply biofuels are also expected to drive the growth of the segment. Only five airports currently have regular biofuel distribution (Bergen, Brisbane, Los Angeles, Oslo, and Stockholm), with others receiving it on an as-needed basis. However, owing less than 5% of all airports handle 90% of international flights, aviation fueling is centralized. These now cover around 6 billion liters of petroleum.
Aircraft Type (Commercial, Regional Transport Aircraft, Military Aviation, Business General Aviation)
The global sustainable aviation fuel market is also segmented and analyzed for demand and supply by aircraft type into commercial, regional transport aircraft, military aviation, business & general aviation, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Amongst these five segments, the military aviation segment is expected to garner a significant share of around ~39% in the year 2035. The growth of the segment is primarily attributed to the rising investment in military. Saudi Arabia intends to invest more than USD 20 billion in its domestic defense industry over the next decade as part of its efforts to increase domestic military spending. Over the next decade, the government intends to invest more than $10 billion on Saudi Arabia's defense industry, as well as equivalent sums in research and development.
Our in-depth analysis of the global market includes the following segments:
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By Fuel Type |
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By Technology |
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By Aircraft Type |
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North American Market Forecast
The market share of sustainable aviation fuel in North America, amongst the market in all the other regions, is projected to be the largest with a share of about 35% by the end of 2035. The growth of the market can be attributed majorly to the increased number of a passenger taking air routes for traveling. In 2021, US airlines carried 674 million passengers (not seasonally adjusted), an increase of 82.5% over 2020 (369 million, unadjusted). Moreover, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, US airlines carried 68.1 million systemwide including both domestic and international scheduled service passengers in December 2021, seasonally adjusted. Besides this, the rising emission of CO2 from the aviation sector and higher adoption of SAF is also expected to drive North America’s market growth. The United States is the world's top source of aviation emissions. In 2019, commercial passenger flights departing from the United States produced 179 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, with domestic flights emitting the vast majority. Furthermore, The Biden Administration has also prioritized SAF, with a production goal of 3 billion gallons per year by 2030 a significant increase from the 10-20 million gallons produced in the United States currently.
APAC Market Statistics
The Asia Pacific sustainable aviation fuel market is estimated to be the second largest, registering a share of about ~28% by the end of 2035. The growth of the market can be attributed majorly to the rise in the number of military exercises. To strengthen bilateral air defense cooperation, India and Japan held the 'Veer Guardian-2023' joint air exercise comprising the Indian Air Force and the Japan Air Self Defence Force (JASDF) at Hyakuri Air Base in Japan from January 12 to January 26, 2023. The Indian presence featured four Su-30 MKI, two C-17, and one IL-78 aircraft, while the Japanese contribution included four F-2 and four F-15 aircraft. On the other hand, the rising initiative taken by private aviation companies to deploy more aircraft is also expected to drive market growth in Asia Pacific.
Europe Market Forecast
Further, the market in Europe, amongst the market in all the other regions, is projected to hold a majority of the share by the end of 2035. The growth of the market can be attributed majorly to the rising initiatives put in by European Union to minimize greenhouse gas emissions. The EU has set a goal to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and aviation is a significant contributor to emissions in the transportation sector. In addition to this, the European Union has introduced incentives and policies to promote the use of SAF, it includes mandatory use of sustainable fuels in some amount and tax exemption for SAF manufacturers.
Author Credits: Ipsheeta Dash, Sadaf Naaz
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