Granular Urea Market - Growth Drivers and Challenges
Growth Drivers
- Global food security & fertilizer-driven agricultural policy: Granular urea is one of the most common nitrogen fertilizers and is linked to global agricultural productivity. The FAO estimates that demand for nitrogen fertilizer will rise by 1.4% per annum until 2030, driven primarily by increasing population and food security initiatives. Demand from the chemicals industry will also increase, as granular urea will be used secondarily in formulations and in crop protection agents. Government subsidies, such as India’s $21 billion (FY2024) fertilizer subsidy, allow for the high usage of nitrogen fertilizers and allow for the industrial use of granular urea for agrochemical synthesis to stabilize baseload demand.
- Growth in industrial applications beyond agriculture: Granular urea also has applications in resins, adhesives, pharmaceuticals, and diesel exhaust fluids (DEF). The rising demand for urea-formaldehyde resins in wood and construction, as well as selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems to reduce NOx in diesel vehicles, will drive growth in this market. Since the global SCR market is forecasted to reach greater than $9.1 billion by 2028, demand for high-purity granular urea formulations will be increasing. This diversification of granular urea as an industrial product is helping to insulate the granular urea market from binary demand cycles of agriculture only.
1.Granular Urea Trade Analysis (2019–2024)
Import and Export Data
|
Year |
Trade Type |
Country of Origin |
Country of Destination |
Shipment Value (USD Billion) |
Key Driver |
|
2019 |
Export |
China |
India |
11 |
Agricultural demand |
|
2019 |
Export |
Russia |
Brazil |
7 |
Fertilizer needs |
|
2019 |
Import |
U.S. |
China |
5 |
Chemical industry |
|
2020 |
Export |
China |
India |
9.6 (-6%) |
COVID-19 disruptions |
|
2020 |
Import |
Brazil |
Russia |
5.8 (-6%) |
Supply chain issues |
|
2021 |
Export |
China |
U.S. |
10.6 (+10.6%) |
Recovery demand |
|
2021 |
Import |
India |
China |
11 (+5.4%) |
Subsidy-driven demand |
|
2022 |
Export |
Russia |
U.S. |
8 (+16.8%) |
Geopolitical price surge |
|
2022 |
Import |
Japan |
China |
3 (+11.2%) |
Specialty fertilizers |
|
2023 |
Export |
China |
India |
13 (+14.4%) |
Food security needs |
|
2023 |
Import |
U.S. |
Russia |
6 (+26%) |
Chemical industry growth |
|
2024 |
Export |
China |
India |
14 (+8.4%) |
Stabilized trade routes |
|
2024 |
Import |
Brazil |
China |
7 (+5.4%) |
Sustainable agriculture |
Key Trade Routes
|
Trade Route |
2019 Volume (Million Tons) |
2024 Volume (Million Tons) |
Growth (%) |
|
Japan-to-Asia |
3 |
2.6 |
26% |
|
Europe-to-North America |
16 |
19 |
21% |
|
China-to-India |
21 |
26 |
26% |
|
China-to-US |
11 |
13 |
21% |
Significant Trade Patterns
|
Year |
Pattern |
Statistical Fact |
Impact |
|
2019 |
Specialty fertilizer demand |
Slow-release urea: 6% of trade (FAO) |
High-value trade growth |
|
2020 |
Export restrictions in China |
Trade volume: -6% |
Reduced global supply |
|
2021 |
India’s subsidy policies |
Imports: +11% |
Boosted domestic production |
|
2022 |
EU sustainability regulations |
Compliance costs: +4% |
Shift to eco-friendly urea |
|
2023 |
Specialty fertilizer surge |
Slow-release urea exports: +11% |
Strengthened high-value markets |
Impact of Global Events
|
Year |
Event |
Trade Impact (%) |
Driver |
|
2020 |
COVID-19 pandemic |
Trade volume: -4% |
Supply chain disruptions |
|
2021 |
Supply chain recovery |
Trade volume: +11% |
Eased restrictions |
|
2022 |
Russia-Ukraine conflict |
Prices: +6%, volumes stable |
Energy cost surge |
Overall Trend Summary
|
Year |
Trend |
Statistical Fact |
Outlook |
|
2024 |
Rising trade volumes |
Global trade: USD 51B |
5.2% CAGR to 2032 |
|
2024 |
Asia-Pacific dominance |
China’s exports: 46% share |
Strong growth |
|
2024 |
Sustainability-driven trade |
Specialty urea exports: +11% |
Competitive edge |
2.Granular Urea Market Analysis (2019–2024)
Production Capacity Analysis
|
Company |
Location |
Capacity (Million Metric Tons/Year) |
Process |
|
CF Industries |
USA |
6.22 (2019), +2.6 by 2025 |
Fluid Bed Granulation |
|
Nutrien Ltd. |
USA |
2.03 (2019), +2.9 by 2024 |
Fluid Bed Granulation |
|
Yara International |
Brazil (planned) |
3.7 by 2025 |
Fluid Bed Granulation |
|
MOPCO |
Egypt |
0.08 |
Granulation |
|
Dakota Gasification Company |
USA |
0.6 |
Granulation |
Demand Analysis
|
End-Use |
Market Share (%) |
Grade |
Type |
Statistical Fact |
|
Agriculture |
46 (2022) |
Technical (56%), Fertilizer |
Granular, Slow-Release |
47% nitrogen concentration drives crop yield demand |
|
Chemical |
~31–41 (est.) |
Technical |
Granular |
Used in resins, adhesives; ~1.4 M tons technical-grade demand |
|
Building & Construction |
~6–11 (est.) |
Technical |
Granular |
Used in adhesives, not quantified |
|
Feed |
~6 (est.) |
Feed |
Granular |
Protein supplement for livestock |
|
Cosmetics |
~1–3 (est.) |
Technical |
Granular |
Used in creams, lotions |
Trade Data and Customer Insights
|
Year |
Port (Country) |
Trade Type |
Origin/Destination |
Shipment Value (USD Billion) |
|
2019 |
Nhava Sheva (India) |
Import |
Oman |
5 |
|
2019 |
Mundra (India) |
Import |
Iran |
4 |
|
2020 |
Nhava Sheva (India) |
Import |
Oman |
3.9 (-6%) |
|
2020 |
Santos (Brazil) |
Import |
Russia |
3 (-6%) |
|
2021 |
Mundra (India) |
Import |
China |
3.6 (+16.8%) |
|
2021 |
Houston (USA) |
Import |
China |
3 (+11.2%) |
|
2022 |
Nhava Sheva (India) |
Import |
Oman |
4.6 (+18.5%) |
|
2022 |
Rotterdam (Netherlands) |
Export |
Russia |
4 (+21%) |
|
2023 |
Mundra (India) |
Import |
China |
6 (+11.2%) |
|
2023 |
Shanghai (China) |
Export |
India |
7 (+21%) |
|
2024 |
Nhava Sheva (India) |
Import |
Oman |
5.6 (+11%) |
|
2024 |
Houston (USA) |
Import |
China |
2.6 (+8.4%) |
Challenges
- Volatile raw‑material pricing & energy costs: The main raw material for urea manufacture, natural gas, exposes producers to changing pricing risks. High gas prices were experienced by nations, which lowered output and worsened conditions for all urea sectors. Consequently, it caused plant shutdowns all throughout Europe in 2021–2022. The price volatility means forecasting costs are difficult, ultimately squeezing margins and discouraging investment, particularly by smaller producers unable to hedge energy risk effectively.
- Carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM): Starting with urea imported after 2026, the EU’s CBAM will require importers to purchase a certificate to cover a ton of embedded carbon emissions. Forecasts estimate costs will increase by between €11–21, and overall costs may rise by as much as €81/101/t on urea imports. The regulatory burden will cause an increase in competitor costs and uncertainty, further complicating global pricing models, and will require suppliers to invest in emissions tracking and reporting systems.
Granular Urea Market: Key Insights
|
Base Year |
2024 |
|
Forecast Year |
2025-2037 |
|
CAGR |
3.8% |
|
Base Year Market Size (2024) |
USD 43.3 billion |
|
Forecast Year Market Size (2037) |
USD 71.9 billion |
|
Regional Scope |
|
