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Self-Driving Cars

Navigating Through the Opportunities of Autonomous
Vehicle Systems for OEMs Up to 2035

Globally, the number of on-road vehicles that were available in the year 2022 was close to 1.5 billion. Out of these, Asia recorded almost one-third of the share, recording close to 550 million vehicles on-road. Europe and North America followed the rank, taking the second and third place respectively with about 400 million and 350 million vehicles on road respectively. On the other hand, the United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), globally 1.35 million were killed each year on roadways, while 3700 people were killed every day worldwide as a result of crashes from cars, buses, motorcycles, bicycles, pedestrians, or trucks (see Figure 1).


Status of On-Road Vehicular Fleet and Vehicular

Fatalities in Global & Selected Regions

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Vehicle fleet around the globe is growing at a rapid pace, and so is the concern for vehicular fatalities. These concerns have raised the need amongst the government to take numerous stringent measures to curb the issue as crash injuries are known to occupy a major share of the economic burden, especially in the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). For instance, the CDC estimated that between 2015 and 2030, the LMICs would experience economic losses of about USD 834 billion dollars as a result of fatal and non-fatal crash injuries. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) had also released a road safety technical package, known as “Save LIVES” which lays down a proforma for governments and businesses so that they can take measures upon speed management, vehicle safety standards, and infrastructure design and improvement among others.

However, business organizations, such as Google Inc., subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., had in turn, taken this as an opportunity and developed the Google Self-Driving Car Project, currently known as Waymo LLC, which is also another subsidiary of Alphabet Inc. and a commercial self-driving taxi services provider, using the self-driving technology developed by Google X lab of Google. Despite the numerous opportunities that lies ahead with autonomous vehicles, which is also known for transforming mobility in the 21st century, the biggest question that lies ahead for businesses is if this seems to be another great opportunity for the automobile manufacturers. Research Nester analyzes how vehicle OEMs can grab the numerous opportunities that lies ahead in regards to self-driving cars by the end of 2035.


What is a self-driving car?

A self-driving car (also called an autonomous car or driverless car) uses artificial intelligence (AI), IoT devices, and supporting software to cover distances without much human supervision. This futuristic-sounding automotive may be able to drive itself to any pre-determined location, but it still requires the presence of a human being ready to take control. A truly autonomous car with a mind of its own, able to decide on the destination and the route, and exercise caution within the lanes, will be a commonplace occurrence in the coming decades.

A recent survey conducted by Research Nester revealed that over 55% of global respondents were okay with riding in a fully self-driving vehicle. The numbers were higher in emerging markets such as China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, and the least in countries like Japan and Germany. The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has identified 6 levels of automation in driving which have been accepted by the U.S. Department of Transportation as ranging from Level 0 (fully manual) to Level 5 (fully autonomous). Here they are –

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Future Outlook of

Self-Driving Cars by 2035

Despite of the several obstacles associated with self-driving cars, governments and businesses are collaborating to develop transportation infrastructure that integrates artificial intelligence in automotive and self-driving technology. Self-driving pilot initiatives are being launched in many places such as Singapore, Sweden, South Korea, and the US to build confidence in both the public and private sectors regarding the efficacy of this new technology. On the other hand, several initiatives are being planned and implemented across nations globally, which provides a major outlook to the adoption of these autonomous vehicles in the future. Here is a glimpse of some of the initiatives taken worldwide on adoption of self-driving cars and its vehicle safety:

Some of the Initiatives that Promote the Adoption of Automated Vehicle Technology Globally:
  • In the United States, on January 11th, 2021, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) has developed the Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan, built on the principles stated in AV 4.0. The plan defined three goals that aimed at achieving the vision of Automated Driving Systems (ADS). The goals include:
    • Promote Collaboration and Transparency
    • Modernize the Regulatory Environment
    • Prepare the Transportation System
  • The USDOT, in association with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, also developed the Ensuring American Leadership in Automated Vehicle Technologies: Automated Vehicles 4.0 (AV 4.0), which is the advanced version of its earlier version, i.e., Preparing for the Future of Transportation: Automated Vehicles 3.0 (AV 3.0). The AV 4.0 focuses on ensuring consistent approach of the United States Government (USG) to AV technologies so that the nation can continue to lead the research, development, and integration in the field of AVs and electric mobility.
  • In June 2022, the World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations (WP.29), which was acknowledged by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Inland Transport Committee (ITC), during their 187th session, agreed to several amendments on Automated/Autonomous and Connected Vehicles (GRVA) regulations. One of the significant amendments was made to UN Regulation No. 157, which allowed increase in speed limit to 130 km/h from 60 km/h, and also added rules for automated lane change functions in passenger vehicles.
  • In the United Kingdom (UK), the government of the nation in the year 2015, established the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV) which aimed at bringing together connected and automated mobility (CAM) technology developers, academia, insurers, vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, as well as local and regional government and transport bodies for testing and developing policy related to autonomous vehicles.
  • In Netherlands, the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (I&M) had opened public roads for large-scale tests of self-driving passenger cars and trucks. The Experimenteerwet zelfrijdende auto, which is a law that governs the experimental use of self-driving vehicles in the country, would ensure that OEMs have greater opportunities to conduct tests involving self-driving cars in the country.
Initiatives Related to Vehicle Safety of Self-Driving Cars:
  • The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which is a part of the USDOT, issued a Standing General Order in the year 2021. This order required vehicle OEMs, operators of ADS, and SAE Level 2 ADS equipped vehicles to report information related to vehicular crash to the agency. Additionally, in the year 2020, the NHTSA launched the initiative, known as Automated Vehicle Transparency and Engagement for Safe Testing. This initiative, which is a part of the AV TEST initiative, stated that companies can submit their information on ADS testing voluntarily to the agency so that the public can view the information.
Leading Standard Organizations that are Developing Standards for Autonomous Vehicles
  • Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE International): Founded in 1904, the organization had 128,000 members in 94 countries as of 2019. As of 2018, the organization had over 37,000 standards, of which, the most ubiquitous is SAW J3016 Levels of Driving Automation.
  • International Organization for Standardization (ISO): Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, ILO is an international body representing 165 national standards organizations. Over the years, the body has published over 23,000 international standards, of which, the following three standards are the most discussed, when it comes to autonomous vehicles:
    • ISO 26262: Road Vehicles – Functional Safety
    • ISO/PAS 21448: Road Vehicles – Safety of the Intended Functionality
    • ISO/TR 4804: Road Vehicles – Safety and Cybersecurity for Automated Driving Systems – Design, Verification and Validation
  • Underwriters Laboratories: Also known as UL, it is a nonprofit organization which focuses on public safety through research, discovery and application of scientific knowledge. In April 2020, the organization published the ANSI/UL4600: Standard for Safety for the Evaluation of Autonomous Vehicles and Other Products.
  • British Standards Institution (BSI): The BSI, which was formed in 1901, was the first National Standards Body of the world and was appointed by the Government of the United Kingdom. The body represented UK’s interests at the ISO, International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), and European Standards Organization (CENELEC, CEN, and ETSI). The body published over 2,700 standards every year, of which, the following three are focused on autonomous vehicles:
    • BSI PAS 1881 – Assuring the Safety of Automated Vehicle Trials and Testing
    • BSI Pas 1883
    • PAS 1882 – Data Collection and Management for Automated Vehicle Trials
  • Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE): A non-profit member-based institution, which is currently engaged in facilitating two working groups:
    • IEEE P2846 – Assumptions for Models in Safety-Related Automated Vehicle Behavior
    • IEEE P2851 – Exchange/Interoperability Format for Safety Analysis and Safety Verification of IP, SoC and Mixed Signal ICs

The global market for self-driving cars, as estimated by Research Nester is to reach beyond USD 64 billion by the end of 2035 by growing at a steady CAGR of ~13% during the forecast period of 2023 and 2035. The expected value is to increase from the market value of nearly USD 22 billion in 2022. Moreover, the market is surrounded by several key players some of which include Autoliv Inc. (Stockholm, Sweden), Baidu (Beijing, China), AutoX, Inc. (California, US), Volvo (Gothenburg, Sweden), HYUNDAI MOTOR GROUP (Seoul, South Korea), Aptiv (Dublin, Ireland), Daimler AG (Stuttgart, Germany), and others.

On the other hand, auto manufacturing companies are entering into strategic partnerships with their competitors and tech companies to launch new and improved self-driving vehicles. For instance, Honda is collaborating with GM and its subsidiary Cruise to manufacture self-driving cars. The companies have already invested over USD 700 million and plan to spend about USD 1.5 billion over the next few years. Here is a glimpse of the different markets that are associated with self-driving cars (see Figure 2).

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Recent Trends Associated with

Self-Driving Cars Globally:

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North America:
  • In association with Nuro, one of the leading self-driving delivery company, has partnered with Domino’s to launch a pilot program for delivering freshly-baked pizzas to its customers.
  • Lyft, Inc. a subsidiary of Toyota Motor Corporation, which is known to offer mobility-as-a-service, cab service, vehicles for rent, and other services using self-driving cars in the US and Canada, announced that using its app, the global technology company Aptiv, has given 100,000 paid rides in Las Vegas.
  • Volvo Cars announced recently that it would launch Ride Pilot, the unsupervised autonomous driving feature, in California. This feature would be available as an add-on subscription in the upcoming fully electric SUVs of the company.
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Asia Pacific:
  • Woven Planet Holdings, which also acquired Lyft, Inc. in the year 2021, has stated that it has partnered with Toyota Motor Corporation. The partnership would help Toyota to implement its ‘Toyota Mobility Concept’.
  • SoftBank Corp., in partnership with May Mobility, began conducting autonomous driving field tests in Tokyo, Japan. It is expected that in April 2023, Japan would be legalizing to operate Level 4 autonomous driving vehicles on public roads.
  • Pony.ai announced recently that it has received a permit by the Beijing Intelligent Connected Vehicle Policy Pilot Zone to test its driverless L4 autonomous vehicles in challenging urban traffic scenarios in Yizhuang, Beijing. The company also announced that it has been testing these vehicles in Guangzhou, China
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Europe:
  • Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), part of Tata Motors, opened three new engineering hubs in Munich (Germany), Bologna (Italy), and Madrid (Spain) of Europe in a multi-year partnership with the leading artificial intelligence (AI) and computing service provider, NVIDIA. These hubs would focus on developing autonomous driving systems for next-gen vehicles of JLR.
  • The European Commission (EC) laid down new rules under the Vehicle General Safety Regulation for improved road safety as well as to allow fully driverless vehicles in the EU region.
  • Stellantis N.V. recently acquired the leading developer of advanced AI and autonomous driving software, aiMotive for accelerating its journey of autonomous driving and to promote its STLA AutoDrive platform.
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Middle East:
  • Cruise LLC, a company backed by General Motors, stated that it has been selected by Dubai to operate its self-driving ride services in the nation. The agreement would allow Cruise to operate around 4000 vehicles.
  • Petromin Corporation’s wholly owned subsidiary, Electromin, stated that it has acquired the first self-driving shuttle from the autonomous mobility systems leader, Navya.
  • EasyMile stated that it has recently collaborated with Ericsson in the Middle East to showcase autonomous driving at LEAP22, and to promote how 5G technology is an accelerator for Level 4 autonomy.

In Conclusion

The future of self-driving cars by the end of 2035 is definitely going to give vehicle OEMs as well as other manufacturers associated with these technologies, several opportunities for growth. With end number of research and innovation that has gone into self-driving technology over the years, the smart mobility solution has a long way to go. Rising participation from regulatory bodies, industry associations, and the governmental support, all are expected to help vehicle OEMs of self-driving cars touch new heights. Moreover, vehicle OEMs are also shifting their focus from passenger segment to commercial segment, which is also expected to generate several investment opportunities for business organizations. For instance, the Government of the United Kingdom has recently announced that in association with industries, it has funded close to USD 98 Million to commercial self-driving passenger and freight services providers (see Figure 3). All in all, the transition for conventional vehicle manufacturers to manufacture autonomous vehicles is not much challenging. Despite the growing competition in the field, OEMs can still catch up to their competitors by creating a bold strategy and executing it at the earliest, without further missing out on any other opportunities.

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